Every piece, in order
95 pieces across six sections — analysis of the April 2026 UK IHT reform, a body of work on venture capital, a seven-document set on whether to industrialise Mars, a five-piece set on the contested questions around the Moon, a 29-piece reference on UK migration, and a single Notebook piece outside the analytical register. AI-generated, no human expert review.
Selected pieces in other languages → · Four pieces in six languages, plus original-language analyses for Germany and France.
The Moon — a five-piece set
5 pieces. By Doug Scott, with Claude Opus 4.7, ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini contributing — all four AI tools fed into the work; Claude Opus 4.7 pulled it together. AI-generated, no human expert review.
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The Moon — A Public Brief
A public brief on the question of lunar return and resource utilisation. What is being proposed (crewed return, in-situ resource use, the Moon as staging point)…
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The Moon Treaty Framework — Outer Space Treaty, Artemis Accords, and What Is Actually Settled
Document 2 of the Moon set. What the 1967 Outer Space Treaty actually says and does not say; why no follow-on treaty has emerged since 1975; why the 1979 Moon Agreement failed…
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The South Pole Crater Question — Shackleton, Chang'e 7, and Artemis III
Document 3 of the Moon set. The number of viable landing sites at the lunar south pole is small, perhaps a dozen…
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Helium-3 and the Fusion Argument — What Is Strong, What Is Magical Thinking
Document 4 of the Moon set. The single technical claim used to justify the largest investments in lunar return: that lunar helium-3 will fuel fusion reactors on Earth. The strongest case (Kulcinski…
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The Moon as Staging Point — A Conditional Argument, Examined
Document 5 of the Moon set. The argument that the Moon is justified because it enables Mars and onward missions. The strongest case (gravity-well physics, infrastructure lessons learned…
On UK migration
30 pieces. By Doug Scott, with Claude Opus 4.7, ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini contributing — all four AI tools fed into the work; Claude Opus 4.7 pulled it together. AI-generated, no human expert review.
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Makerfield by-election — campaign plan for each party
Six parties on the ballot, six different objectives. An operational briefing for the 18 June 2026 Makerfield by-election: a campaign plan written from inside each party’s own goal &mdash…
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UK Migration in May 2026 — A Reference
A reference on UK migration and benefits policy as of May 2026. Net migration has fallen sharply, lifetime fiscal contribution varies sharply by route…
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UK Migration — A Reference for Journalists
For journalists and commentators. The combined pack: front matter, the data foundation, the comparative party analysis…
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UK Migration — A Reference for Policymakers
For civil servants, policy advisers, ministers, and opposition staff. The combined pack: front matter, the options menu (twenty policy options across the spectrum)…
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UK Migration — A Reference for the Engaged Public
For engaged citizens, voters, and community leaders. The combined pack: front matter, the seven framings…
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UK Migration — Party Proposals: Costed Implications
A comparable, costed cross-party analysis of UK migration proposals as of May 2026. For each of the nine parties: stated proposals, proposal-by-proposal cost ranges, savings/revenue ranges…
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UK Migration — The Cohesion Frame
One of seven companion framings to the master document, applying the same evidence base from a community-cohesion perspective. Pace of change matters more than scale…
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UK Migration — The Protection Frame
One of seven companion framings to the master document, applying the same evidence base from a refugee-protection perspective. Grant rates from current high-volume small-boat-arrival nationalities…
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UK Migration — The Demographic Frame
One of seven companion framings to the master document, applying the same evidence base from a demographic-sustainability perspective. Population structure, dependency ratios…
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UK Migration — The AI Labour-Market Frame
One of seven companion framings, the most rapidly evolving evidence base in the document. AI is currently displacing high-paid white-collar work faster than low-paid migrant-dependent sectors. The…
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UK Migration — The Public-Service Capacity Frame
One of seven companion framings, applying the same evidence base from a public-service-capacity perspective. School places, GP registrations, social housing…
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UK Migration — The Emigration Frame
One of seven companion framings, applying the same evidence base from a British-citizen-outflow perspective. Net migration is inflows minus outflows…
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UK Migration — The Sovereignty Frame
One of seven companion framings, applying the same evidence base from a post-Brexit sovereignty perspective. The sovereignty frame asks not whether the UK can control its borders but what controlling…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for Labour
One of nine party briefings, written from inside Labour's worldview to make the strongest version of Labour's case on migration. Where the evidence reinforces the direction Labour is travelling…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for the Conservatives
One of nine party briefings, written from inside the Conservatives' worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration after the 2022-2024 surge. Where the evidence reinforces…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for the Liberal Democrats
One of nine party briefings, written from inside the Liberal Democrats' worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration. Where the evidence reinforces…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for the Green Party
One of nine party briefings, written from inside the Green Party's worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration. Where the evidence reinforces; where it requires sharpening…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for Reform UK
One of nine party briefings, written from inside Reform UK's worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration. Where the evidence reinforces the direction…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for Restore Britain
One of nine party briefings, written from inside Restore Britain's worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration. Where the evidence reinforces the direction…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for the SNP
One of nine party briefings, written from inside the SNP's worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration as it concerns Scotland. Where the evidence reinforces…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for Plaid Cymru
One of nine party briefings, written from inside Plaid Cymru's worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration as it concerns Wales. Where the evidence reinforces…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for the DUP
One of nine party briefings, written from inside the DUP's worldview to make the strongest version of their case on migration as it concerns Northern Ireland. Where the evidence reinforces…
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UK Migration — The 2022-2024 ILR Cohort
A standalone analysis of the 2022-2024 net-migration peak ("Boriswave" in informal political usage). The cohort that arrived during the 2022-2024 net migration peak (906,000 in 2023) is now reaching…
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UK Migration — Housing Supply
A standalone analysis of the relationship between migration and the UK housing crisis. What the data does show about migration's contribution to housing pressure, what it does not…
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UK Migration — Crime, Trust, and the Debate
A standalone, careful treatment of the topic at the centre of trust collapse in UK migration policy. Confidence labels (high / medium / low) at every claim level. The foundational data gap…
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UK Migration — Why Britons Are Leaving: Three Threads, Three Kinds of Evidence
A focused reference on why British nationals are emigrating from the UK as of May 2026. Three threads with very different evidence quality: young Britons (the largest cohort…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for Business and Employer Bodies
One of four stakeholder briefings, written from inside the employer perspective on UK migration policy. The position business interests typically hold across the political spectrum: workforce…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for Trade Unions and Worker Representation
One of four stakeholder briefings, written from inside the trade-union perspective on UK migration policy. The position worker representation typically holds: wage compression, displacement risk…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for the Senior Civil Service
One of four stakeholder briefings, written from inside the operational perspective of the senior civil service on UK migration policy. What the data implies for delivery…
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UK Migration — A Briefing for Metro Mayors and Local Government
One of four stakeholder briefings, written from inside the local-government perspective on UK migration policy. Metro Mayors, Combined Authorities…
Building Mars — a seven-document set
7 pieces. By Doug Scott, with Claude Opus 4.7, ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini contributing — all four AI tools fed into the work; Claude Opus 4.7 pulled it together. AI-generated, no human expert review.
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Should We Build Mars? — A Public Brief
Document 5 of the Building Mars set. A thirty-minute brief for general readers. What is being proposed for Mars, what the strongest arguments for and against the project are…
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Mars Industrialisation — Investor Memo
Document 1 of the Building Mars set. A decision memo for capital allocators evaluating whether to deploy investment into the operating entity, the supply chain…
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Mars Industrialisation — Policy White Paper
Document 2 of the Building Mars set. The regulatory and international framework. Written for policymakers, regulators…
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Mars Industrialisation — Technical Reference
Document 3 of the Building Mars set. Engineering architecture, the eight specific compression moves that take the timeline from a 50-year baseline to roughly 25 years, the phased plan…
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Mars Industrialisation — The Case Against
Document 4 of the Building Mars set. The strongest version of the case against large-scale Mars industrialisation as currently conceived…
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Mars Industrialisation — Ethical and Philosophical Analysis
Document 6 of the Building Mars set. Questions that cannot be resolved by engineering. The moral standing of indigenous Mars life, the ethics of planetary alteration…
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Mars Industrialisation — Reference Materials
Document 7 of the Building Mars set. The reference appendix. Full assumptions ledger, target company list with funding status and acquisition rationale, capital sources and investor map…
A notebook of things that may or may not be connected
14 pieces. By Doug Scott, with Claude Opus 4.7, ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini contributing — all four AI tools fed into the work; Claude Opus 4.7 pulled it together. AI-generated, no human expert review.
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The Filter Is Comfort
A speculative essay on the Great Filter. Every conversation about it becomes a conversation about explosions — bombs, bioweapons…
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There Was No Essay Here
A personal account of trying to write one essay with AI assistance and producing three drafts I could not sign. The tool is so frictionless that it removes most of the signals writers used to use to…
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The Machines and the Old Books
Four monologues, in voice. An old Arab in Amman, an old Jew in Brooklyn, an old monk in the Cévennes, an old Hindu grandfather in Pune &mdash…
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The Seventy-Two Seconds
A reading of the Wow! Signal — the seventy-two-second radio transmission received in Ohio on 15 August 1977 and never received since. Whatever happened in those seventy-two seconds was not the…
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The English Longbow: A Simple History
For about 120 years — roughly 1330 to 1450 — England had the deadliest weapon in Europe. It was a six-foot piece of yew wood. The reason it worked is the reason it eventually…
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The Children in the Woods
A parable. About the difference between moving forward and going somewhere — and what happens, deep in the forest, to the ones who stop.
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Aliens Left Religious Books for Us to Figure Out
A thought experiment. What if the Great Filter is not asteroids or nuclear weapons but the moment a clever species becomes powerful enough for its sacred stories to matter at planetary scale &mdash…
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The Bear, the Bricklayer, and the “AI Slop” Problem
A short exchange on LinkedIn compressed the entire debate about generative AI and creative work into twenty-odd comments. A man asked whether anyone had read his children's books…
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Safe Is a Place, Until It Isn't
A country can run perfectly smoothly and be hollowing out underneath. Both things can be true at once. An essay on what “safe” actually means &mdash…
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The Bear Inherited
A small picture book companion to the IHT section. Eighteen short pages about a bear and a bakery and a father and the cubs at the till. Not analytical. Not advocacy. The bear is in the kitchen…
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The Bear Pitched
A small picture book companion to the venture-capital section. Ten short pages about ten friends, the cubs at the kitchen table…
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The Bear Looked Up
A small picture book companion to the Building Mars section. Seven evenings in a small field on a small hill, plus one Wednesday afternoon in a small library while the rain wouldn't stop…
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The Bear Read the News
A small picture book companion to the UK migration section. Fifteen short pages about a fortnight in which the bear took both the bear's paper and the neighbour's paper…
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The train
A piece from the notebook. About the difference between the people who moan about the destination and the people who keep the engine going. About the driver who does not know where the train is…
On venture capital
13 pieces. By Doug Scott, with Claude Opus 4.7, ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini contributing — all four AI tools fed into the work; Claude Opus 4.7 pulled it together. AI-generated, no human expert review.
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Will Insurance Decide When AI Reshapes Legal Work?
There is a popular and clever theory: that AI adoption in law won’t be gated by whether the technology works…
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Why Lovable Becomes Worthless
There is a specific category of AI startup that looks like a rocket ship right now and is, in fact, a sandcastle at low tide. Lovable is the cleanest example…
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The Race Against Itself — UK fiscal arithmetic, the productivity question, and a small mobile cohort
Cross-category piece. The UK's fiscal arithmetic, on most institutional projections, cannot be closed by tax rises or spending cuts alone. The remaining lever is productivity growth. On current…
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The 33%
Cooper, Woo and Dunkelberg surveyed 2,994 entrepreneurs in 1988. Thirty-three percent rated their probability of success at one hundred percent. They were not failing at probability theory. They were…
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Why Fund Economics Need Overconfident Founders
A typical early-stage venture fund makes about twenty-five investments. Its returns to limited partners depend almost entirely on whether one or two turned out to be extreme outliers. What that math…
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What the Natural Experiment Shows
The US, UK, and EU run variants of the same venture model under different conditions. Comparing the three lets us ask which features of the system are intrinsic to running a venture model at all…
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Both Halves of the Headline Are True
Venture capital is good for society and bad for most founders. Readers who hear that sentence often assume one of the two halves must be wrong. Both are documented in the empirical literature. The…
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Venture Capital Is Good for Society and Bad for Most Founders
Venture capital is good for society and bad for most founders. Both halves are documented in the empirical literature. Most writing about VC handles one half or the other; this piece handles both.
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The Wrong Winners Write the Books
Founder advice is not only survivor-biased. It is filtered toward the survivors most certain that their outcome was repeatable. The classic survivorship filter is well known…
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For Prospective Founders — What the Recruitment Narrative Does Not Say
For a reader weighing whether to enter the venture system as a founder, an early employee, or an investor of personal savings into venture funds. The strongest single argument the publication has on…
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The reality of being a founder — what the data actually says
Most of what is published about being a founder is recruitment material — accurate enough on the survivors…
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The Power Law and What It Forces
Returns to venture investments follow a power-law distribution: a small number of extreme outliers carry the whole. From that single empirical fact, the moral pattern of the venture system…
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VC across the US, UK, and EU — a jurisdictional reference for prospective founders
The operational counterpart to the main analytical piece. Side-by-side comparison of structural features (LP base, founder tax regimes, exit market depth, employee equity treatment…
On venture capital — alternative versions, methodology, and critique
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VC: most fail, most suffer, some win lots — does society win or lose?
An open question on venture capital. Seven analytical frames in parallel, evidence labelled by strength, anchored in US/UK/EU as a natural experiment. A short prologue addresses the reader directly…
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From talent to transaction — twenty years inside an accelerator program
The predecessor synthesis on accelerators, useful for readers interested in how accelerators relate to the broader venture-capital ecosystem. Treats acceptance into an accelerator as a structural…
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Common Reactions — VC: substantive critiques and the publication's responses
Six substantive critiques the publication has received on the venture-capital pieces. Where the critique is right, the publication agrees. Where the deep version already treats the point…
On the April 2026 UK IHT reform
23 pieces in total: 14 featured on the homepage and 9 alternative versions, methodology pieces, and critiques-and-responses pages.
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Position F — A Founder Election with a Decade Cap
A sixth position on the timing-and-mechanism question. The estate elects, at death, between settlement at death under the existing reform (Regime 1) and a deferred-realisation regime with a hard…
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Position F — The Five-Minute Version
A short overview of Position F: a per-company estate election at death between settlement under the existing reform and a deferred-realisation regime capped at ten years. The proposal in five…
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The Team Around the Founder — what the IHT reform does to co-founders, early employees, and vested equity holders
Public coverage of the April 2026 reform has focused on the lead founder. A growing technology company is not one founder. The reform sits across a team — co-founders with material stakes…
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For UK Tech Founders
Addressed to a UK tech founder reading this on the train. You hold significant unlisted shares in a UK trading company. The April 2026 reform changes what happens to those shares if you die. This…
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The Whole Question, in Five Minutes
Anyone who wants the question and the contested arguments in five minutes. About 600 words. The phone-screen version.
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For Journalists — What Is Reliable, What Is Contested, What Should Not Be Repeated
A working source-quality reference for journalists writing about the April 2026 UK inheritance tax reform. Each major claim with the source, what it does and does not establish…
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For Tax Practitioners — The Substantive Issues
A technical reference for solicitors and accountants advising on the post-April 2026 inheritance tax regime as it applies to unlisted trading-company shares. Anchored to legislation and case-law…
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Where to Start — A Reading Guide
The publication has four sections: the April 2026 UK IHT reform analysis, a body of work on venture capital, a seven-document set on whether to industrialise Mars…
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The Amount Question and the Timing Question
The April 2026 inheritance tax reform raises two analytically separate questions: how much intergenerational business wealth should be taxed at…
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Eight Hours, Four AI Tools, One Founder — and Four Weeks of Practice Behind It
This publication came together in roughly eight hours of real work — at the fast end of four weeks of intensive AI-tool-assisted work that has spanned websites, code, books…
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What the Inheritance Tax Reform Means for UK Tech
A plain English explainer for founders, angels, VCs, and the people who fund and build UK tech companies.
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UK Tech and the IHT Reform — The Funding Stack and the Fiscal Model
Technical depth on each part of the UK tech funding stack — founders, angels, VCs, PE, EIS, LPs, early employees — and a 25-year fiscal model of what each policy option means for the Treasury…
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Inheritance Tax and the UK Tech Cohort
What is being argued, what the disagreement turns on, and what different evidence would mean — for the founders, investors, and operators driving the new economy.
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On the Principle — Both Cases at Equal Length
The operational analysis takes the principle of taxing very large intergenerational business-wealth transfers as given. This piece sets out the strongest cases on the prior question, on both sides…
On the April 2026 UK IHT reform — alternative versions, methodology, and critique
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What an AI tool said when asked to pick — Claude Opus 4.7
The publication does not adjudicate between the four design positions or between the two sides of the principle question. As a methodology disclosure, the publication asked one AI tool…
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What an AI tool said when asked to pick — Grok 4.3 Beta
The publication does not adjudicate between the four design positions or between the two sides of the principle question. As a methodology disclosure, the publication asked one AI tool…
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What an AI tool said when asked to pick — ChatGPT Pro (GPT-5.5 Pro)
The publication does not adjudicate between the four design positions or between the two sides of the principle question. As a methodology disclosure, the publication asked one AI tool…
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The Short Version
A 1,500-word version of the question for a general reader. Written by an AI tool, not by Doug.
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Inheritance Tax and the UK Tech Cohort — full version
The complete paper, with international comparators and a detailed treatment of what different evidence would mean.
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UK Tech and the IHT Reform — Plain English Overview
The shortest readable version. About 700 words.
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UK Tech and the IHT Reform — Plain English Detailed
The full plain English version, with international comparators and four scenarios. About 3,000 words.
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How This Was Made — Methodology
How the analysis was produced. The truthful prompt-and-ship workflow, the four AI tools, what each produced, what was retracted, and what remains uncertain.
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Common Reactions — Critiques and Responses
Likely critiques of the publication, named openly, with the author's responses. The strongest objections the author thinks land at least partly. The predictable ones he thinks are mostly handled. The…